Bits + Bips: Why Hasn't This Macro Cycle Boosted the Crypto Markets? - Ep. 702

As crypto markets continue to struggle, experts weigh in on whether the capitulation phase is finally over and what lies ahead. In this episode, hosts James Seyffart and Joe McCann, along with guest Noelle Acheson, delve into the recent market downturn, the potential for a recession in 2025, and why Bitcoin's divergence from gold is puzzling analysts. They also explore the impacts of upcoming rate cuts, the lingering effects of fiscal dominance, and whether Ethereum ETFs are living up to the hype.
Show highlights:

Why crypto has been down so bad recently despite the macro cycle

The three factors weighing on the bitcoin price for the moment, according to Noelle

The chances of a recession in the U.S. in 2025 and how much the Fed might cut rates

Why the current rate-cutting cycle is unusual, with markets expecting far more cuts than usual, and how a potential spike in inflation could complicate the Fed's response

Why the K-shaped economy endures, driven by the U.S. government's reliance on capital gains taxes

Why fiscal dominance is a growing concern and why bitcoin's recent divergence from gold is puzzling, as they typically move together during crises

Whether retail has been a buyer of the spot Bitcoin ETFs or it’s just onchain traders who are now buying them

Why James says the Ethereum ETFs “have been an absolute flop"

Sponsors:

Gemini

Stellar

Hosts:

James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

Joe McCann, Founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric

Guest:

Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

03:35 Why crypto is struggling recently

09:16 Three key factors weighing on Bitcoin's price

15:12 Chances of a 2025 U.S. recession and potential Fed rate cuts

25:55 Unusual rate-cutting cycle and inflation risks

32:06 Enduring K-shaped economy and capital gains tax impact

34:37 Concerns about fiscal dominance and Bitcoin’s divergence from gold

54:57 Retail vs. onchain traders in spot Bitcoin ETFs

1:01:43 Whether Ethereum ETFs have been a "flop"

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