RERUN: How to Figure Out Whether a Crypto Token Is Worth Its Trading Price - Ep. 756

Low float and high fully diluted valuation (FDV) coins have been a hot topic in crypto this year. Yet, understanding these coins' unrealized gains is critical for truly grasping their pricing.
In this episode, Jose Macedo of Delphi Digital and Ari Paul of BlockTower Capital dive deep into metrics that help assess a coin’s true value. They discuss why upcoming token unlocks may put downward pressure on the market, how token unlocks could be better structured for long-term success, and whether VCs are extracting more value than they contribute.
Show highlights:

Why upcoming token unlock events are creating anxiety in the crypto market

The role unrealized gains play in token price volatility

How certain projects manipulate circulating supply metrics to influence perceptions

Tips for everyday investors to uncover accurate token information

The impact of secondary market trading on anticipated token unlock events

Why short-term token strategies often prevail over those focused on sustained success

Jose’s insights into why simple, time-based unlock models may outperform complex systems

Ari’s thoughts on the SEC’s investigations into VCs and their parallels to pump-and-dump schemes

Why many crypto projects face a bearish outlook due to pending token unlocks

How the intersection of memecoins and VC involvement could shape the next market cycle

Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com
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Guests:

Jose Macedo, founder at Delphi Labs

Ari Paul, CIO of BlockTower Capital

Previous appearances on Unchained:

Ari Paul on Why Bitcoin Is a Good Value Buy

Ari Paul of BlockTower Capital on the Crypto Downturn and Why It Could Change Direction

Links
High FDV and unlocks:

Unchained:

How ‘Fully Diluted Valuation’ Can Be a Very Dangerous Metric for Crypto Markets to Rely On

Who’s to Blame for the Underperformance of Low Float, High FDV Tokens?

80% of Tokens on Binance Are Down Since Listing Date: SwissBorg Researcher

Cobie newsletter: New launches (part 1) - private capture, phantom pricing

Rocknblock: Token vesting explainer

CoinDesk: 'Liquid Vesting' Is Oxymoronic Blockchain Feature That Lets Early Investors Sell Without Waiting

Jose’s thread that inspired the episode

Ari’s post responding to Jose’s thread

Token.unlocks.app: Token vesting tracker

Solutions:

Hack VC: Potential Solutions to Crypto's Unlock Problem

Colony Lab: Early-Stage Program & Liquid Vesting

Imran Khan’s tweet on Blast https://x.com/lmrankhan/status/1806040646433522149

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:46 Token unlocks creating market concerns

11:06 Unrealized gains to market cap ratio impact

13:06 Token supply manipulation tactics

21:11 How investors can verify token projects

24:21 Secondary market trading and unlock impacts

35:36 Current token launch strategy persistence

41:46 Short-term vs long-term project decisions

47:21 Time-based vs metric-based token unlocks

53:51 SEC investigations into VC practices

59:56 Bearish outlook for upcoming token unlocks

1:06:36 Investor risks in current cycle

1:13:11 Future of VCs in crypto and memecoins

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