Bits + Bips: Why a U.S. Recession May Be Coming — And Still Isn’t Priced In - Ep. 814

The markets are rattled. Tariffs are rising. Investors are pulling back.
In this week’s Bits + Bips, the panel digs into what’s really driving the selloff, why the Fed may be stuck, and how Trump’s tariff logic could trigger deeper economic shocks than anyone expects.
Plus:

Whether Bitcoin becomes a safe haven

What makes this downturn different from 2022 and 2020

Why a potential recession still isn’t priced in

Whether Congress can take the tariff button away from Trump

And yes, Ram coins a new term: FAFO tariffs 😀
Sponsors:

Bitwise

Hosts:

James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard

Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida

Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter

Links
Tariffs:

Recent coverage of Unchained on the economy and tariffs:

Arthur Hayes on Why Tariffs Will Be Good for Bitcoin and Crypto

Bits + Bips: Trump’s Tariffs Are Causing Mayhem, But Will They Revive U.S. Manufacturing?

Trump Tariffs Sink Crypto, BlackRock Pumps Bitcoin’s Bags

Why Trump-Induced Stagflation Could Finally Make Bitcoin a Safe Haven

In Market Crash, What Should You Buy? Crypto VCs Are Making These Bets

10-year yield and the Fed

CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield rises back above 4% despite tariff threat to growth

Reuters: No Fed 'put' when it's unclear which way the economy may pivot

2008 Market Crash

Federal Reserve: The Great Recession and Its Aftermath

CNN: Bailout Plan Rejected - Supporters Scramble

Can Congress Step In?

Economist: How Donald Trump’s Tariffs Will Probably Fare in Court

Politico: Trump Threatens Veto of Bill to Curb Tariff Power

Timestamps:
👋 0:00 Intro
📉 3:30 Why this selloff feels nothing like 2022 or 2020
🪞 8:41 Why buying signals could be a mirage
🤔 11:28 Is the bear market already priced in? What investors are missing.
🏚️ 14:35 Could this turn into a fall “2008 scenario”? And what real buyers are doing now
🧮 25:57 Why Trump’s tariff math is wrong, and how it will create problems for the administration
📈 36:15 Why Trump wants the 10-year yield down, and why he’s failing
🛟 39:59 What counts as a safe haven right now, and is bitcoin one of them?
🏦 52:42 Can the Fed stand up to Trump’s pressure to cut rates?
🚫 57:56 Trump thinks that the trade deficit is a profit/loss statement. Why that’s a problem.
⚖️ 1:01:19 Can Congress pull Trump’s tariff authority?
💵 1:06:32 Can stablecoins save dollar demand?
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